Oliver_2017_NC_201516TasmanSeaMHW.pdf (2.81 MB)
Download fileThe unprecedented 2015/16 Tasman Sea marine heatwave
journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-19, 13:37 authored by Oliver, ECJ, Benthuysen, JA, Nathaniel BindoffNathaniel Bindoff, Hobday, AJ, Neil HolbrookNeil Holbrook, Craig MundyCraig Mundy, Perkins-Kirkpatrick, SEThe Tasman Sea off southeast Australia exhibited its longest and most intense marine heatwave ever recorded in 2015/16. Here we report on several inter-related aspects of this event: observed characteristics, physical drivers, ecological impacts and the role of climate change. This marine heatwave lasted for 251 days reaching a maximum intensity of 2.9 °C above climatology. The anomalous warming is dominated by anomalous convergence of heat linked to the southward flowing East Australian Current. Ecosystem impacts range from new disease outbreaks in farmed shellfish, mortality of wild molluscs and out-of-range species observations. Global climate models indicate it is very likely to be that the occurrence of an extreme warming event of this duration or intensity in this region is respectively ≥330 times and ≥6.8 times as likely to be due to the influence of anthropogenic climate change. Climate projections indicate that event likelihoods will increase in the future, due to increasing anthropogenic influences.
History
Publication title
Nature CommunicationsVolume
8Article number
16101Number
16101Pagination
1-12ISSN
2041-1723Department/School
Institute for Marine and Antarctic StudiesPublisher
Nature Publishing GroupPlace of publication
United KingdomRights statement
Copyright The Author(s) 2017. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Repository Status
- Open