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The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change: Part II - Integrating impacts with adaptive capacity
journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-17, 06:47 authored by Nelson, R, Kokic, P, Crimp, S, Martin, P, Holger MeinkeHolger Meinke, Howden, SM, deVoil, P, McKeon, G, Nidumolu, UIn the first paper in this series [Nelson, R., Kokic, P., Crimp, S., Martin, P., Meinke, H.,Howden, S.M. (2010, this issue)], we concluded that hazard/impact modelling needs to be integrated with holistic measures of adaptive capacity in order to provide policy-relevant insights into the multiple and emergent dimensions of vulnerability. In this paper, we combine hazard/impact modelling with an holistic measure of adaptive capacity to analyse the vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change. Bioeconomic modelling was used to model the exposure and sensitivity of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change. Rural livelihoods analysis was used as a conceptual framework to construct a composite index of adaptive capacity using farm survey data. We then show how this integrated measure of vulnerability provides policyrelevant insights into the constraints and options for building adaptive capacity in rural communities. In the process, we show that relying on hazard/impact modelling alone can lead to entirely erroneous conclusions about the vulnerability of rural communities, with potential to significantly misdirect policy intervention. We provide a preliminary assessment of which Australian rural communities are vulnerable to climate variability and change, and reveal a complex set of interacting environmental, economic and social factors contributing to vulnerability.
History
Publication title
Environmental Science and PolicyVolume
13Pagination
18-27ISSN
1462-9011Department/School
Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture (TIA)Publisher
Elsevier Sci LtdPlace of publication
The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford, England, Oxon, Ox5 1GbRights statement
The definitive version is available at http://www.sciencedirect.comRepository Status
- Restricted