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World steel production: A new monthly indicator of global real economic activity
journal contributionposted on 2023-05-20, 16:30 authored by Ravazzolo, F, Joaquin VespignaniJoaquin Vespignani
This paper proposes world steel production as an indicator of global real economic activity. World steel production data is published with only a one-month delay, thereby providing timely information for world real GDP forecasters. We find that world steel production and Lutz Kilian's (2009) index of global real economic activity generate large gains in forecasting world real GDP, relative to an autoregressive benchmark. A forecast combination of world steel production, Kilian's (2009) index of global real economic activity and an index of the industrial production of OECD countries plus six non-OECD emerging economies produces significant gains in forecasting world real GDP, relative to an autoregressive benchmark.
Publication titleCanadian Journal of Economics
PublisherUniv Toronto Press Inc
Place of publicationJournals Division, 5201 Dufferin St, Downsview, Toronto, Canada, On, M3H 5T8
Rights statement© Canadian Economics Association