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Analysis of shock transmissions to a small open emerging economy using a SVARMA model

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posted on 2023-05-28, 01:05 authored by Raghavan, M, Athanasopoulos, G
Using a parsimonious structural vector autoregressive moving average (SVARMA) model, we analyse the transmission of foreign and domestic shocks to a small open emerging economy under different policy regimes. Narrower confidence bands around the SVARMA responses compared to the SVAR responses, advocate the suitability of this framework for analysing the propagation of economic shocks over time. Malaysia is an interesting small open economy that has experienced an ongoing process of economic transition and development. The Malaysian government imposed exchange rate and capital control measures following the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Historical and variance decompositions highlight Malaysia's high exposure to foreign shocks. The effects of these shocks change over time under different policy regimes. During the pegged exchange rate period, Malaysian monetary policymakers experienced some breathing space to focus on maintaining price and output stability. In the post-pegged period, Malaysia's exposure to foreign shocks increased and in recent times are largely driven by world commodity price and global activity shocks.



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