2017-08_Ravazzolo_Vespignani.pdf (818.02 kB)
World steel production: a new monthly indicator of global real economic activity
reportposted on 2023-05-28, 00:20 authored by Ravazzolo, F, Vespignani, J
In this paper we propose a new indicator of monthly global real economic activity, named world steel production. We use world steel production, OECD industrial production index and Kilian's rea index to forecast world real GDP, and key commodity prices. We find that world steel production generates large statistically significant gains in forecasting world real GDP and oil prices, relative to an autoregressive benchmark. A forecast combination of the three indices produces statistically significant gains in forecasting world real GDP, oil, natural gas, gold and fertilizer prices, relative to an autoregressive benchmark.
Department/SchoolSchool of Computing and Information Systems
PublisherUniversity of Tasmania
Rights statementCopyright 2017 University of Tasmania JEL Codes: E1, E3, C1, C5, C8 Discussion Paper Series N 2017-08