From a butterfly to a (black) swan? The importance of scenarios in CCAMLR futures

The Antarctic Treaty was developed in a period of great power rivalry and geopolitical tension during the late 1950s. The Antarctic Treaty parties subsequent management of these rivalries and tensions through additional instruments, institutions and, decision-making processes forming the Antarctic Treaty System has contributed to what was termed “Antarctic exceptionalism”. Wherein the Antarctic Treaty and instruments of the Antarctic Treaty System are considered immune from external and geopolitical issues. A combination of factors has led to the growing concern of prolonged challenges to established norms and practices within the Antarctic Treaty System. This research explores how external geopolitical and global issues may be affecting meetings of the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR), which is an important component of the Antarctic Treaty System. The research uses an “intuitive logics 2x2 scenario approach” to identify threats and challenges from within the system and, importantly, from external challenges of contemporary international geopolitics. Thesis data was used to develop narratives of plausible futures for CCAMLR. The research provides evidence to suggest that CCAMLR and other Antarctic Treaty System components are increasingly influenced by events taking place in a wider political and global system. This research project serves as a pilot study observing the effectiveness of a scenario development process in providing a useful tool for discussion and, novel knowledge production to explore CCAMLR’s future. The Antarctic convergence no longer acts as a boundary protecting Antarctic governance, the Antarctic environment and, Antarctic exceptionalism from an influx of unexpected external influences.