Modelling the Tasmanian blackcurrant industry

This study models the Tasmanian blackcurrant industry in a partial equilibrium context. The model developed is then used to address two policy issues, the impact of the Closer Economic Relationship (C.E.R) with New Zealand and an assessment of the impact on the industry of the Tasmanian Soft Fruit Industry Board as a statutory marketing authority. The models developed include both those based on adaptive expectations and on rational expectations. The preferred adaptive expectations model is then used to assess the welfare implications of the modification of the sales tax exemption for fruit under the auspices of C.E.R. The study indicates considerable effects on the industry as a result. The effect of the Tasmanian Soft Fruit Industry Board is found to largely duplicate the pricing decisions of another statutory authority, the Fruit industry Sugar Concession Committee.