Self-efficacy and academic performance: a chicken-and-egg conundrum

Self-efficacy (SE) is widely viewed as critical to student success. Recent modelling shows that SE and academic performance (AP) are reciprocally related over time, with AP the primary antecedent (the AP→SE effect is stronger than the SE→AP effect). However, this research considered only studies measuring SE before AP at each wave of measurement (“SE-first” studies). Focusing on studies with the opposite measurement order (“AP-first” studies), we conducted a follow-up study exploring reciprocity and the comparative strength of directional effects in the relationship. A meta-analytic cross-lagged panel analysis of AP-first studies showed a reciprocal relationship, as found previously. However, the pattern of directional effects was opposite to that in SE-first studies: the SE→AP effect was stronger than the AP→SE effect. The feedback loop in the relationship means that the relative influence of the variables on each other depends on timing of measurement. This highlights the difference between “mastery-informed” and “mastery-naïve” SE, with implications for the calibration of SE with AP.