142869 - A fast re-sampling method for using reliability ratings of sightings with extinction-date estimators - author manuscript.pdf (320.35 kB)
A fast re-sampling method for using reliability ratings of sightings with extinction-date estimators
journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-20, 21:07 authored by Barry BrookBarry Brook, Jessie BuettelJessie Buettel, Jaric, IThe pattern of sightings of a species that is rare, and then no longer observed, can be used to estimate its extinction date. However, other than physical captures or specimens, the veracity of any sighting is ambiguous, and should be treated probabilistically when used to infer extinction dates. We present a simple yet powerful computational approach for incorporating observational reliability into extinction date estimators (EDE). Our method (1) combines repeated within-year sightings probabilistically, (2) samples observations using reliability as an inclusion probability, (3) infers a probability distribution and summary statistics of extinction dates with any EDE, and (4) computes the frequency distribution of the extinction date. We applied this method to eight exemplar sighting records covering a range of lengths, sighting rates and uncertainties, using a variety of statistical EDEs, and compared these results with a threshold approach for selecting sightings. We also demonstrated a robust coverage of “true†extinction dates based on selected real-world examples of rediscovered species and confirmed extinctions, and simulated sighting records. Our approach represents a powerful generalization of past work because it is not predicated on any specific method for inferring extinction dates, and yet is simple to implement (with R script provided).
Funding
Australian Research Council
History
Publication title
EcologyVolume
100Issue
9Article number
e02787Number
e02787Pagination
1-7ISSN
0012-9658Department/School
School of Natural SciencesPublisher
Ecological Soc AmerPlace of publication
1707 H St Nw, Ste 400, Washington, USA, Dc, 20006-3915Rights statement
Copyright 2019 by the Ecological Society of AmericaRepository Status
- Open